Day 3 - Hiding Out

[mrblarney]

Well, a couple of interesting things from the night's results, hmm? Void Slayer seems to have been offed in a double kill, kind of a waste. Two members of the hospital staff faction have been offed - which could be a good thing or a bad thing depending on their capabilities. Curiously, the color being used by the hosts for their faction matches up with Zandracon's. In addition, Dunadan didn't revive, meaning that he's either bled out from other injuries, or remains in sedation. Is it possible that the orderlies' kill comes in the form of sedation? Where do we go from here, folks?

[mrblarney]

More interesting information, hm hmm. Mr. Defecation has made a post publicly presenting the same information that we have received regarding eliminated players' alignments and the target of the asylum staff's "kill". It seems quite possible that he is part of a second cell of sane patients with the same passive ability as us, but with an odd-day group kill instead of even. (Thinking on a meta level, this could also account for the needed correction for our group abilities.) Under this case, we could have the following factions:

Insane (Village) - 1 kill via vote, 1 kill via vigilante role
Asylum Staff (Mafia A) - 1 group kill
Cannibals (Mafia B) - 1 group kill
Sane (Mafia C) - 1 group kill, split among two unconnected cells.

Of course, there is still the question out there of how one might be able to connect the two Sane groups together into a more powerful whole, if at all. There's also the question of why the two Sane cells would both have the same passive ability. It would make more sense for the cells to have complementary tracking abilities: in the case of the Sane, that would be one group to track the Asylum Staff and one to track the Cannibals.

This leads me to another alternate theory, that we still have the three minority factions of Asylum Staff, Cannibals, and Sane, and that each of them are split up into two complimentary cells. Under this setup, Mr. Defecation would likely be a Cannibal in a group whose passive ability tracks the Asylum Staff. With three minority groups each split up into two cells of five players each however, that leaves only ten players for the Insane roles. It's quite possible that the generic role PM is a red herring, and all Insane players are also special in some fashion. Probability, however, says that this is rather unlikely, since we've already seen five Insane deaths and no deaths from a partner Sane group. However, if we cannot differentiate between the Insane and the Cannibals, the outcomes are not far off of reasonable bounds.

Statistics also suggest that the scenario where the Insane are the minority and the Sane are the majority separated into cells is highly unlikely.

[Capfalcon]

I'd bet that the orderly kill is sedation, which means they get a kill every day. Which kinda sucks.

[smooveop]

We could test the sedation theory by putting a kill order in on someone who was previously sedated. But if the sedation is a "kill" for the sake of the game, it would just be a waste. Also, vertrou was sedated then made a ghost post, which I would think means that sedated patients are gone for good.

[smooveop]

Also, MrD claimed he was self-committed and that there are more of them. If what he is saying is true then we and the self-committed seem to be 2 cells of the same supergroup. Except that we have to out-survive them. It may have been worth contacting them but I assume they have the same win condition (out surviving us).

[mrblarney]

I think we have to take the risk, personally. Try to build a truce with Mr. Defecation for mutual protection, since our groups alone are so weak.

[Capfalcon]

We're probably going to die in crossfire if we don't have some of it pointed away from us.

[mrblarney]

Alright. Then I'll be opening a communication link to Mr. Defecation with the following message:

I believe you and I are not too different. Both of us are part of minority groups with a passive group ability to trace death alignments and the asylum staff's kills. And our active group ability is an even-day kill to complement your odd-day kill.

Our group was, in fact, going to do almost the same thing you did after day 2's close, but Void Slayer's reveal made us reconsider. The only thing that we would have different is to claim a solo neutral survival role. I guess people are assuming that you are part of a neutral group, considering your informational ability that assists all factions, so nobody has questioned it so far. (I almost did before deciding to open a communication line.)

So how about we form a truce for the time being? I'm sure your group has experienced quite a bit of frustration at your low power, and I'm sure you've considered the possibility of a complementary group out there. Though our win conditions are currently in conflict, it is in our best interests to band together until no players outside our groups remain. We've both already lost one of our team members (Zandracon, Kay), so any strength we can gather will help. What do you say?

[gtc]

Why is Mr. D lying about Kay's alignment...?

[mrblarney]

Maybe he is fishing for us. We'll see how well that goes.

[Capfalcon]

I was going to say that we should have said that we thought Void Slayer wasn't Village since he was "lying" about the people's identities.

[gtc]

I'm going to make a total bastard suggestion.

Mr. D's faction doesn't seem to be getting any more information about the kills than we are, which means they won't know who's responsible for any given death.

Tomorrow, let's kill him. We need the edge up over his faction, and it will throw the village into a more leaderless state, allowing us (and, admittedly, other factions) greater influence.

[mrblarney]

Re: Capfalcon: Yeah, but Void Slayer claimed to be Insane and was verified as such by Mr. Defecation. Countering that puts us in an antagonistic situation with the Self-Committed, with whom we have probably the best chance to work with.

Re: Gandalf: That's all fine and good except for the fact that due to the tracing ability, they'd have the suspicion that we were responsible. We'd mutually spiral to our dooms. Let's think more on this plan tomorrow. It's quite possible that one of the other factions will target Mr. Defecation tonight and if there is a guard it would be among the villagers, and there is a chance he will not protect Mr. Defecation.

[smooveop]

Someone (maybe one of us, I dont remember and cant be bothered to check my sources) pointed out that MrD said that Kay was sedated by orderlies.

Most likely they are getting the same information we are and MrD jumped to the logical conclusion that sedations are done by orderlies and went with it. Alternately, MrD knows who killed whom. Alternately Alternately, MrD has contact with the orderlies and knows who they killed.

ps - i dont know how to use who/whom, but that sounded correct.

[smooveop]

!Irrelevancy Warning!

I was reading through older posts on here and GTC's prediction that we are not the only sane one's got me thinking. What if everyone is split into 5 man groups, all told that we are sane, all given off-day kills and all given conflicting information on how someone died and what role they had. The orderlies and doctors all exist only outside the game, watching us all kill each other. Unlikely, but the possibility made me smile.